There are no easy answers for U.S. presidents when it comes to engineering regime changes. But the conflict isn't over yet.
“How the Iranian Regime Breaks,” theorized Afshon Ostovar for Foreign Affairs on January 22, 2026.
“Elite fracture will come gradually and then suddenly,” predicted Ostovar.
For a day or two in mid-January of 2026, it looked as if that day might have finally arrived.
Calling the massive protest the worst stress-test the Ayatollahs have been forced to endure over near five decades of iron-fisted rule, Ostovar pointed out where the movement failed.
“But the elite has not yet fractured,” Ostovar pointed out. “Instead of squabbling over how to handle the demonstrations, Iran’s reformist and hardline leaders have worked together to suppress them. To date, none of the regime’s elites objected to the killings of thousands of innocent civilians by security forces.”
“For decades, predicting the end of the Islamic Republic has been a fool’s errand,” Ostovar reminded readers. “The regime has faced all kinds of crises — wars, mass protests, high inflation — without cracking. Its theocratic system steadily isolated the country, destroyed its economy, and subjected its people to stifling social restrictions. But it retained a powerful security apparatus, and thus proved capable of repeatedly quelling even widespread dissent.”
And repeatedly quell dissent they did. Political analysts and foreign policy observers who had hoped for a different outcome were bitterly disappointed. Some blamed Donald Trump.
“Trump Let Down the Iranian Protestors,” William A. Gladstone claimed for the Wall Street Journal on January 20, 2026. “He promised he’d help but then stood by while the regime massacred them.”
“Considering the information Mr. Trump received during the administration’s deliberations, his decision to stand down may well have been correct,” Gladstone admitted. “Still, he shouldn’t have sent encouraging messages to the protesters if he wasn’t committed to backing them up. Because he did so, the president bears a measure of responsibility for the consequences.”
“We’re slowly learning how grave those were,” Gladstone warned. “Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself has acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests. The Times of London has received reports from doctors on the ground suggesting that the toll was far worse — at least 16,500 deaths and 330,000 injuries.”
Now, it seems even that staggering death toll is no where near the actual number.
“Over 36,500 killed in Iran’s deadliest massacre, documents reveal,” reported Iran International’s Editorial Board on Sunday. “Iran International’s Editorial Board can confirm the death toll after reviewing newly obtained classified documents, field reports, and accounts from medical staff, witnesses, and victims’ families.”
“The new information provides a clearer picture of the killing pattern and the scale of a crime that can now be described as the largest and bloodiest massacre of civilians during street protests, over a two-day period, in history,” they reported. “Iran International has received reports and evidence indicating the extrajudicial execution of a number of detainees in Tehran and other cities. Images released from morgues leave little doubt that some wounded citizens were shot in the head while hospitalized and undergoing medical treatment.”
And while the New York Times didn’t arrive as the astronomical total of 36,5000 dead, its most recent report was just as devastating in the details.
“How Iran Crushed a Citizen Uprising With Lethal Force,” explained reporters for the New York Times on January 25, 2026. “In Tehran, the capital of Iran, security forces opened fire at protesters from the roof of a police station. In Karaj, they fired live rounds into a march, shooting one person in the head. In Isfahan, young men barricaded themselves in an alley as gunfire and explosions rang out.”
“On Friday, Jan. 9, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered the Supreme National Security Council, the body tasked with safeguarding the country, to crush the protests by any means necessary, according to two Iranian officials briefed on the ayatollah’s directive,” reported the NYT. “Security forces were deployed with orders to shoot to kill and to show no mercy, the officials said. The death toll surged.”
“Security forces fired on protesters from the rooftop of a police station in Tehran Pars for more than six minutes, one video shows,” they added. “The video shows the muzzle blasts of several rifles and picks up the sound of hundreds of gunshots and what appears to be automatic fire.”
“Multiple images and videos verified by The Times showed hundreds of bodies laid out at the Kahrizak morgue within days of the protests erupting on Jan. 8,” the report noted.
“Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has moved into a special underground shelter in Tehran after senior military and security officials assessed an increased risk of a potential US attack, two sources close to the government told Iran International,” reported that outlet today.
The U.S. military carrier Abraham Lincoln arrived in the Gulf near Iran on Sunday. The repositioning of such a vital resource sends a strong signal that, while President Trump didn’t help Iranian protestors overthrow the Ayatollahs two weeks ago, he hasn’t completely ruled it out.
(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)